The Oscars start at 7pm EST on Sunday, March 15th. Why is the show airing in the middle of March, a full two and a half months into the new year? No idea. But it’s led to online debates about Timothee Chalamet being mean to the concept of ballet and Jessie Buckley’s distaste for cats, so I think we’ve waited a little too long.
While Best Picture is the headlining act, this year’s show hosts some of the most unpredictable races we’ve seen in years. Categories like Best Supporting Actor/Actress are completely up in the air, and even Best Actor has several compelling storylines that make it difficult to call. Sinners and One Battle After Another will go head to head in most categories, making for an exciting night between two titans of the 2025 film year.
I’ll be giving my choice for which film I want to win, as well as which nominee I think will actually win.
Best Picture
My Pick: Sinners
My Prediction: One Battle After Another
This awards season has seen two films rise above the rest. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, nominated for a record-breaking 16 Academy Awards1, and Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, a film that has won so many precursor awards it would be one of the greatest Oscars upsets ever if it fails to bring home Best Picture. OBAA has dominated the last few months, winning at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes, Producers Guild Awards (PGAs), and BAFTAs. But recent wins amongst the cast of Sinners at the Actor Awards have provided new momentum to Coogler’s exploration of colonialism and blues music.
Best International Feature
My Pick: Sentimental Value
My Prediction: Sentimental Value
Another two-horse race comes in the International Feature category, with both films being nominated for Best Picture and containing Oscar-nominated performances. Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgard, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ippsdotter Lilleaas represent Sentimental Value (submitted by Norway) in three of the four acting categories, while Wagner Moura, star of The Secret Agent (submitted by Brazil), is nominated for Best Actor. The sheer number of nominations makes me lean toward Sentimental Value2, but The Secret Agent is backed by Brazil, which has become a powerful voting bloc within the Academy.3
Best Animated Film
My Pick: KPop Demon Hunters
My Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters
Whether you like it or not, this is going to happen.
Best Actor
My Pick: Do I have to choose?4
My Prediction: Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)5
Honestly, no one can be ruled out here. Ethan Hawke and Leonardo DiCaprio each have an established presence in Hollywood and could be recognized thanks to their years of goodwill and deep connections. Wagner Moura, on the other hand, has the previously mentioned power of Brazil behind him (as well as his years of service in the television and film industry). And finally, Michael B. Jordan and Timothee Chalamet could prove that the next generation has its own movie stars who are capable of earning the most prestigious award in film. I’ll enjoy seeing any of these five win the award, but I believe Chalamet will be crowned, even if his young age stands out from how the Academy usually votes.
Best Actress
My Pick: Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
My Prediction: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Jessie Buckley is as close as you can get to a sure thing. Winning every single precursor in the last few months for her performance in Hamnet, it would be insane if she wasn’t invited up to the stage on Sunday night to accept the award. My pick would be Rose Byrne for her work in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, but with her only win coming months ago at the Golden Globes (Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy), her chances to upset Buckley are next to nothing, making this the only acting category that’s reasonable to predict.
Best Supporting Actor
My Pick: Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value)
My Prediction: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Sean Penn has won two Oscars (2004 for Mystic River and 2009 for Milk), and his role as Colonel Lockjaw in One Battle After Another marks his sixth nomination at the Academy Awards. He’s won a handful of awards in the lead-up to Oscar night, but a third win for a man who is unlikely to even show up to the ceremony would be extremely boring, especially when the perfect option is sitting in plain sight. Stellan Skarsgard winning would reward his performance as filmmaker Gustav Borg in Sentimental Value as well as his decades in the industry.6
Best Supporting Actress
My Pick: Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
My Prediction: Wunmi Mosaku
With a recent win by Amy Madigan at the Actor Awards for her role in Weapons,7 Supporting Actress has become yet another toss-up. Teyana Taylor has lost momentum, not receiving an award since the Golden Globes back in January, but she is connected to OBAA and could be rewarded if a sweep emerges. Likewise, Mosaku is tied to the success of Sinners, as well as a recent win at the BAFTAs, bringing her into an all-out sprint alongside Taylor and Madigan.8
Best Director
My Pick: Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
My Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Despite Chloe Zhao (Hamnet) taking home Best Director at the Golden Globes, Paul Thomas Anderson has led most of the awards season alongside his film. A split between Picture and Director isn’t out of the question, and it would be interesting to see Sinners and One Battle After Another share the podium, but the 55-year-old director has simply waited too long to go uncelebrated. The mind behind films like Boogie Nights, There Will Be Blood, and Phantom Thread, PTA has been nominated 14 times without a single win, which is why I’m predicting such a big night for him.
Best Original Screenplay
My Pick: Sinners
My Prediction: Sinners
With Sinners a frontrunner for Best Picture, writer/director Ryan Coogler is widely expected to take home this award. If an upset were to occur, Sentimental Value would be the likely recipient thanks to its numerous nominations in other categories.
Best Adapted Screenplay
My Pick: One Battle After Another
My Prediction: One Battle After Another
As with Sinners, OBAA’s Best Picture momentum will carry it to victory in its screenplay category. Hamnet, written by Chloe Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell would be the second option here, but Paul Thomas Anderson’s Oscar drought will likely end with a flood.
Now for the lightning round:
Casting: Sinners
Cinematography: One Battle After Another
Costume Design: Sinners9
Film Editing: One Battle After Another
Makeup and Hairstyling: Frankenstein
Original Song: “I Lied To You” (Sinners)
Production Design: Sinners
Score: Sinners10
Sound: Sirat
Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash
All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land shared the previous record of fourteen nominations.
Sentimental Value earned nine nominations to The Secret Agent’s four.
Just last year, the Brazilian film I’m Still Here won Best International Feature while earning nominations for Best Picture and Best Actress (Fernanda Torres).
It would be very cool if Leo came out of nowhere and won.
However, Michael B. Jordan is basically the exact same age as both Jamie Foxx and Denzel Washington when they won their Oscars, just to call out a pattern in the Academy.
Acting since 1972, his most popular projects from the last 30 years include Andor, Good Will Hunting, Mamma Mia, Dune, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Melancholia, Chernobyl, and various MCU and Pirates of the Caribbean movies.
Madigan is the film’s sole Oscar nomination.
Similar to Best Actor, all three of these nominees give great performances and I wouldn’t hate seeing any of them win.
Very likely that the winner of Makeup and Hairstyling (probably Frankenstein) just wins this award as well.
This would be Ludwig Goransson’s third Oscar win (Black Panther, Oppenheimer). Jonny Greenwood is the dark horse pick with OBAA being his third nomination (Phantom Thread, The Power of the Dog).