Only two AFC teams have been eliminated from the postseason, and two divisions are tied, making for a confusing playoff picture. The Chiefs and Texans will likely have to win all of their remaining games for any chance at a Wild Card spot, with Denver running away with the West and the Colts and Jaguars fighting over the South. Lamar Jackson’s return seemed to seal the North, but at 6-6, it’s still anyone’s game. The only division that seems decided is the East, as the Patriots retake the throne and force Josh Allen’s Bills to battle for a lower seed.
Division Leaders: Patriots, Jaguars, Broncos, Ravens*
New England Patriots: After five years of the Bills dominating the NFC East, the Patriots have decided to take it back. Year two of the Drake Maye project has gone about as smoothly as Pats fans could hope, with Monday’s victory over the Giants being their tenth-straight win. Maye is leading the league in passing yards and completion percentage, which is even more impressive when you realize three of his top four passcatchers are over 30 years old and he hasn’t had a single game with more than 300 yards. While they’ve only beaten three teams with records over .500, New England will be in the playoffs and might even earn a first-round bye with their next four matchups being against the Bills, Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins
Denver Broncos: A wise GM once said, “Defense wins championships.” Denver leads the league in sacks, has allowed the fewest touchdowns to opponents, and is just one of two teams in the NFL with 10 wins or more. However, seven of those wins have been by less than five points. The most recent was a one-point overtime win over Washington, which ended with LB Nik Bonitto deflecting the game-winning pass. The young receiver corps, anchored by veteran Courtland Sutton, provides a level of unpredictability for opposing defenses, with a different player leading the team in receiving yards in each of the last four games. Two games ahead of the Chargers (and four ahead of the Chiefs), the AFC West is Denver’s to lose. There is a tough final stretch incoming, though, with games against each of their divisional opponents, as well as matchups against the Packers and Jaguars.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Despite their placement, Jacksonville is a bit of a mystery. Travis Hunter, the second-overall pick this year, has been ruled out for the season (ACL), Trevor Lawrence ranks 30th in completion percentage, and Brian Thomas Jr, last season’s breakout star, has less than 450 receiving yards and only 1 touchdown. The secret to their success, on both sides of the ball, has been on the ground. Lawrence has rushed for 5 touchdowns, alongside rookie Bhayshul Tuten (4) and Travis Etienne (5), who is on track to have the best year of his career with 70 rush yards per game. The Jaguars’ defense is allowing the fewest rushing yards in the league and has forced the third-most turnovers. Tied with the Colts at eight wins, Jacksonville will have to defend its claim with two matchups against Indianapolis over the next four weeks.
Baltimore Ravens (Really?): Joe Flacco might not have won many games as the Bengals’ starter, but the Steelers and Ravens have made sure to keep the division within Joe Burrow’s reach, with both teams sitting at 6-6. Despite the Ravens winning five of their last six games, Lamar Jackson hasn’t looked like himself, completing under 59% of his passes in all four games last month. The defense has also taken a step back from years past, ranking in the bottom half of the league in allowing points, pass yards, and rush yards. Baltimore has made the playoffs in six of the last seven years, but thanks to their 1-5 start, their only hope is winning the division.
In the Hunt: Bills, Chargers, Colts
Indianapolis Colts: After a 7-1 start, the Colts have fallen back to earth, losing three of their last four games. And they’ve allowed the rest of the AFC South (minus the Titans) to catch up. The Texans’ defense is keeping Houston alive with four wins in November, and the Jaguars have snuck through the cracks into first place. While Daniel Jones’s leg fracture has definitely been a factor in the Colts’ waning, the team still has the necessary firepower to take out the Jaguars, with three players recording over 600 receiving yards, and Jonathan Taylor still leading the league in rushing yards.
Los Angeles Chargers: Winning four of their last five games, the Chargers hold a two-game lead over the Chiefs for second place in the West. While Justin Herbert has led four players to more than 500 yards this season, RB Kimani Vidal has failed to find consistency after stepping in for the injured Omarion Hampton. He’s reached over 90 yards on the ground in four matchups and was held to 30 or fewer in his other four starts. The defense ranks second in pass yards allowed, and five players have produced multiple turnovers. However, the team will face a gauntlet in the final five weeks, with the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans, and Broncos all aiming to avoid an early end to their seasons. If the Chargers can beat the Chiefs and Texans, they’ll secure a spot in the playoffs while likely shutting the door on Houston and Kansas City.
Buffalo Bills: Buffalo sits with two other 8-win teams in the current Wild Card spots after the Patriots took control of the East. Despite the defense allowing the fewest pass yards per game, the run defense has been awful, ranking 30th. Losses to the Dolphins and Texans have all but ruined Buffalo’s chances of winning the division. With just one receiver over 450 yards, the offense has relied heavily on the run game. James Cook has already set a career record, rushing for 1,228 yards (2nd in the league), and Josh Allen has 11 rushing touchdowns (also 2nd in the league), making for a brutal one-two punch. Three of their upcoming matchups will be against the Bengals, Browns, and Jets, allowing Buffalo to pave its way to the playoffs.
The Season is Over for the...
Miami Dolphins: Winning their last three games has brought Miami to 5-7, but a single loss in the next few weeks will completely eliminate them from playoff contention. Third in the AFC East, the Dolphins have some serious questions to address this offseason, including the quarterback position. Tua Tagovailoa leads the league in interceptions (14) and is averaging his fewest yards per game since his rookie season. Tyreek Hill, who suffered a season-ending injury in Week Four, is still third in receiving yards for Miami, signaling an extremely weak offense makeup behind Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane.
Cincinnati Bengals: There’s a surprisingly decent chance that the Bengals could make the playoffs, but I decided to cross off two teams from each conference when I started writing about this season, so here we are. Two games behind both the Steelers and Ravens, the Bengals need to win out if they have any hopes of the playoffs. Joe Burrow is back, and he’s 3-0 so far this season, but the next two games are against Buffalo and Baltimore, teams that also can’t afford to lose. It might just be too late for a Joe Burrow comeback, but if the Bengals end up making the playoffs, I’ll eat my words.