Only two AFC teams aren’t returning to the playoffs after appearing last year, but they’re the most surprising. With no Ravens led by Lamar Jackson and no Chiefs carried by Patrick Mahomes, the AFC feels wide open. Quarterbacks in four of the top five seeds have played less than three full seasons with their team, making it hard to predict how they will fare in the postseason. The Broncos have secured the #1 seed, yet their offense feels hollow. The Patriots have improved from four wins in 2024 to a whopping fourteen in 2025, but faced the easiest schedule in years. Even the Steelers, who are led by Aaron Rodgers, are only in the playoffs because the Ravens missed a field goal in the closing seconds of Week 18. The quarterback most familiar with his team among the division winners is Trevor Lawrence, who led Jacksonville to thirteen wins for the first time since 1999.
In the lower seeds are the Bills, Chargers, and Texans, all hoping to find success on the road in the first round.
Division Leaders: Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars, Steelers
Denver Broncos: Unlike the Seattle Seahawks, the #1 seed in the NFC, it feels like there isn’t a lot of belief in the Broncos, who sit atop the AFC. However, after Week 3, Denver lost just one game and ended the season with a record of 14-3, their best since 2013. In his second year, quarterback Bo Nix has led a pretty unpredictable offense, with six players surpassing 300 receiving yards. Courtland Sutton led Denver’s receivers with seven touchdowns and just over 1,000 yards while rookie runningback RJ Harvey emerged as the main rushing threat with six total touchdowns between Weeks 13-17. But like the Seahawks, the defense has been the team’s true strength. Denver ranks in the top three when it comes to limiting points and rushing yards per game. They’ve also allowed the fewest touchdowns to opposing offenses (29) while leading the league with 68 sacks (the Falcons rank second with 57). Four players recorded seven or more sacks for the Broncos, but it was LB Nik Bonitto, who led the team with 14 this season, who was named to the Pro Bowl. Cornerbacks Patrick Surtain II (2024’s Defensive Player of the Year) and Riley Moss (league leader with 19 passes defended) made it difficult for opposing quarterbacks to air the ball out, with Denver allowing fewer than 190 passing yards per game. They’ll have a week to prepare for a home game in the second round.
New England Patriots: After missing the playoffs in four of the last five seasons, the Patriots have taken the NFC East back from the Bills. Drake Maye is up against Matt Stafford for the MVP in only his second season, with 32-year-old Stefon Diggs as his leading receiver. It’s an unbelievable turnaround for a team that won just eight games over the last two seasons. Maye threw for nearly 4,400 yards and led the league with a completion percentage of 72% (no other player ended the year above 70%). He also provided solid value on the ground, totaling 450 yards and 4 touchdowns. RBs Rhamondre Stevenson and rookie TreVeyon Henderson combined for 19 touchdowns and over 2,000 yards, emerging as one of the more exciting running back duos in the AFC. The explosive offense finished in the top three in terms of yards per play (6.2), points per game (28.8), and total touchdowns (58), but it should be noted that they faced the easiest schedule in the league. Two early losses to the Steelers and Raiders were followed by ten straight wins, with seven of them being decided by 13 points or more. New England will host the Chargers in the Wild Card, whose decimated offensive line could make it easy for the defense to find success and bring the Patriots their first postseason victory since winning the Super Bowl in 2018.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Ending the season on an eight-game win streak, the Jaguars outlasted the Colts and held off the Texans to win the AFC South. An underwhelming season from WR Brian Thomas Jr. and an ACL tear for rookie Travis Hunter made it seem as though Jacksonville’s offensive power would falter, but Trevor Lawrence leveled up, throwing for a career-high 29 touchdowns (and rushing for a team-high of 9), finding reliable connections with Parker Washington and mid-season acquisition Jakobi Meyers. Washington led the team in receiving yards (847), accruing 347 in the final three weeks of the season. Jacksonville’s explosiveness was also bolstered by a career year from RB Travis Etienne, who rushed for 1,107 yards and recorded 13 total touchdowns. Opposing teams failed to find similar success on the ground, with the Jaguars’ defense allowing just 85.6 rushing yards per game (fewest in the league). They’ll hope to use this strength to limit Buffalo RB James Cook in the first round. Jacksonville also ranked second in the NFL in takeaways, with Devin Lloyd and Antonio Johnson recording 5 interceptions each. They’ll host the Bills in the Wild Card and could aim to exploit Buffalo’s poor run defense in their second postseason appearance since 2017.
Pittsburgh Steelers: After two disastrous seasons with the Jets, Aaron Rodgers is back in the playoffs after winning the AFC North with the Steelers, thanks to a missed field goal by the Ravens. Pittsburgh transformed this year, picking up former Seahawk D.K. Metcalf as their WR1 in addition to the change at QB. Another offensive change was the release of RB Najee Harris, which resulted in the elevation of Jaylen Warren and the addition of Kenneth Gainwell to the backfield. Both runningbacks surpassed 1,000 total yards this season, and found the endzone a combined 16 times. While the defense allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game (244), they were able to pressure the quarterback, with fifteen players contributing to the 48 sacks recorded by Pittsburgh this season. Three players (Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig, and T.J. Watt) recorded double-digit TFLs, flashing some of the defensive talent that the Steelers will need to exercise as they host the Houston Texans on Monday.
Wild Card: Texans, Bills, Chargers
Houston Texans: Starting the season with three-straight losses and losing their starting quarterback for three games in November should’ve been enough to end Houston’s season. But thanks to a trio of wins by backup QB Davis Mills, the Texans stayed in the playoff mix, finishing with 12 wins for the first time in over a decade. It’s the third year in a row that Houston has made the playoffs with C.J. Stroud under center, but the same could be said about edge rusher Will Anderson Jr., who combined with Danielle Hunter for 27 sacks this year, more than 50% of Houston’s total QB takedowns. Allowing the fewest yards per game, Hunter and Anderson Jr. have been the spearhead of an elite defense. Houston’s rushing efforts, led by Nick Chubb and rookie Woody Marks, have not been as exciting, with the two backs combining for just over 1,200 yards on the ground and a total of 8 touchdowns. Despite this, there’s a chance the Texans have the easiest path through the playoffs, facing an exploitable Broncos team in the divisional round if they can defeat an up-and-down Steelers squad in the Wild Card.
Buffalo Bills: Even though the Bills’ unrivaled dominance atop the AFC East has come to an end, Josh Allen is the only established superpower on this side of the playoffs, with no Mahomes or Lamar Jackson. Statistically, the reigning MVP has underperformed, throwing for less than 3,700 yards and just 25 touchdowns (although he rushed for 14 touchdowns and nearly 600 yards). James Cook, on the other hand, showed great improvement, leading the league with over 1,600 rushing yards. He provided consistency on the ground as the Bills struggled to find a true lead receiver, with eight players recording 245 or more receiving yards. Khalil Shakir led the team with just over 700 yards, but the tight end duo of Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid combined for 9 touchdowns, even with Kincaid missing a handful of games due to injury. The Bills’ defense, which has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards this season, could have its hands full in the first round as they travel to Jacksonville. However, they’ve limited opposing quarterbacks to a league-low 157 yards per game, and will hope to force Trevor Lawrence into making some mistakes.
Los Angeles Chargers: The Chargers started the season 3-0, aiming for a continued regular-season success under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Sweeping the Chiefs for the first time since 2013, the Chargers found near identical production from their top three receivers. Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Keenan Allen each recorded between 735 and 790 receiving yards while combining for 18 touchdowns. Even a broken hand couldn’t hold back Justin Herbert, who started 16 games and finished in the top-ten among quarterbacks for passing yards and touchdowns (he also rushed for nearly 500 yards). However, thanks to injuries along the offensive line, including 2024 first-round pick Joe Alt, his overall production has been limited; Herbert has been sacked 54 times this season, behind only Geno Smith and Cam Ward (who were sacked 55 times). There’s still a chance that the Chargers can find success in their Wild Card game against New England, but it will take a great defensive performance. Los Angeles has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per game and has recorded the third-most interceptions, with Donte Jackson and Tony Jefferson leading the way with 4 apiece. Pro Bowler Tuli Tuipulotu has recorded a team-high 13 sacks, 20 TFLs, and 23 registered hits on opposing QBs, and enters the game with the best chance of making Drake Maye struggle in the playoff spotlight.
The No-Shows: Chiefs, Ravens, Colts
Three teams seemed positioned to make the playoffs. Until they weren’t.
Baltimore Ravens: Starting the season 1-5 would be an immediate death sentence for almost any team. But in the AFC North, the Ravens stayed alive and entered Week 18 with the division title on the line in a Sunday night matchup against the Steelers. Lamar Jackson completed 11 passes for 238 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a pick, setting the Ravens up for a walk-off field goal from 44 yards away. The kick from rookie Tyler Loop was wide right, ending Baltimore’s season.
Indianapolis Colts: Choosing Daniel Jones as their starting quarterback seemed like a terrible way to start the season, but then the Colts won eight of their first ten games. Positioned at the top of the AFC, the Colts lost all their QBs, Jones to a torn Achilles, Anthony Richardson to an eye injury, and benched rookie Riley Leonard for 44-year-old Philip Rivers. The Colts lost their final seven games, falling to third in the AFC South and missing the playoffs for the fifth year in a row.
Kansas City Chiefs: Unable to find consistency on offense, the Chiefs collapsed, winning just six games after making it to five of the last six Super Bowls. In their worst season since 2009, Kansas City was unable to run the ball, with Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco combining for less than 1,100 rushing yards. Mahomes threw for the fewest touchdowns of his career (22) before tearing his ACL in Week 15, bringing the Kansas City nightmare to an end. The Chiefs currently hold the 9th pick in the 2026 draft.